ABSTRACT Data-driven astrophysics currently relies on the detection and characterisation of correlations between objects' properties, which are then used to test physical theories that make predictions for them. This process fails to utilise information in the data that forms a crucial part of the theories' predictions, namely which variables are directly correlated (as opposed to accidentally correlated through others), the directions of these determinations, and the presence or absence of confounders that correlate variables in the dataset but are themselves absent from it. We propose to recover this information through causal discovery, a well-developed methodology for inferring the causal structure of datasets that is however almost entirely unknown to astrophysics. INTRODUCTION Understanding the physical processes that shape galaxies is a central goal of astrophysics. Empirical progress has traditionally relied on identifying correlations between observed properties, which can then be interpreted in light of theoretical models for galaxy formation and used to constrain them. The advent of large surveys and powerful machine learning techniques has greatly expanded our ability to find such statistical associations, uncovering intricate patterns across high-dimensional parameter spaces. However, correlation alone cannot determine causal influences among variables: which properties are actually responsible for determining others, in what direction this influence goes, and whether there exist confounding variables that are not included in the dataset but influence those that are.

Causal discovery uncovers complex relationships between variables, enhancing predictions, decision-making, and insights into real-world systems, especially in nonlinear multivariate time series. However, most existing methods primarily focus on pairwise cause-effect relationships, overlooking interactions among groups of variables, i.e., subsystems and their collective causal influence. In this study, we introduce gCDMI, a novel multi-group causal discovery method that leverages group-level interventions on trained deep neural networks and employs model invariance testing to infer causal relationships. Our approach involves three key steps. First, we use deep learning to jointly model the structural relationships among groups of all time series. Second, we apply group-wise interventions to the trained model. Finally, we conduct model invariance testing to determine the presence of causal links among variable groups. We evaluate our method on simulated datasets, demonstrating its superior performance in identifying group-level causal relationships compared to existing methods. Additionally, we validate our approach on real-world datasets, including brain networks and climate ecosystems. Our results highlight that applying group-level interventions to deep learning models, combined with invariance testing, can effectively reveal complex causal structures, offering valuable insights for domains such as neuroscience and climate science.

This paper presents a methodological approach to financial time series analysis by combining causal discovery and uncertainty-aware forecasting. As a case study, we focus on four key U.S. macroeconomic indicators -- GDP, economic growth, inflation, and unemployment -- and we apply the LPCMCI framework with Gaussian Process Distance Correlation (GPDC) to uncover dynamic causal relationships in quarterly data from 1970 to 2021. Our results reveal a robust unidirectional causal link from economic growth to GDP and highlight the limited connectivity of inflation, suggesting the influence of latent factors. Unemployment exhibits strong autore-gressive dependence, motivating its use as a case study for probabilistic forecasting. Leveraging the Chronos framework, a large language model trained for time series, we perform zero-shot predictions on unemployment. This approach delivers accurate forecasts one and two quarters ahead, without requiring task-specific training. Crucially, the model's uncertainty-aware predictions yield 90% confidence intervals, enabling effective anomaly detection through statistically principled deviation analysis. This study demonstrates the value of combining causal structure learning with probabilistic language models to inform economic policy and enhance forecasting robustness.

Causal relationships play a fundamental role in understanding the world around us. The ability to identify and understand cause-effect relationships is critical to making informed decisions, predicting outcomes, and developing effective strategies. However, deciphering causal relationships from observational data is a difficult task, as correlations alone may not provide definitive evidence of causality. In recent years, the field of machine learning (ML) has emerged as a powerful tool, offering new opportunities for uncovering hidden causal mechanisms and better understanding complex systems. In this work, we address the issue of detecting the intrinsic causal links of a large class of complex systems in the framework of the response theory in physics. We develop some theoretical ideas put forward by [1], and technically we use state-of-the-art ML techniques to build up models from data. We consider both linear stochastic and non-linear systems. Finally, we compute the asymptotic efficiency of the linear response based causal predictor in a case of large scale Markov process network of linear interactions.

We introduce a novel framework for temporal causal discovery and inference that addresses two key challenges: complex nonlinear dependencies and spurious correlations. Our approach employs a multi-layer Transformer-based time-series forecaster to capture long-range, nonlinear temporal relationships among variables. After training, we extract the underlying causal structure and associated time lags from the forecaster using gradient-based analysis, enabling the construction of a causal graph. To mitigate the impact of spurious causal relationships, we introduce a prior knowledge integration mechanism based on attention masking, which consistently enforces user-excluded causal links across multiple Transformer layers. Extensive experiments show that our method significantly outperforms other state-of-the-art approaches, achieving a 12.8% improvement in F1-score for causal discovery and 98.9% accuracy in estimating causal lags.

Discovering causal relationships in complex multivariate time series is a fundamental scientific challenge. Traditional methods often falter, either by relying on restrictive linear assumptions or on conditional independence tests that become uninformative in the presence of intricate, non-linear dynamics. This paper proposes a new paradigm, shifting from statistical testing to pattern recognition. We hypothesize that a causal link creates a persistent and learnable asymmetry in the flow of information through a system's temporal graph, even when clear conditional independencies are obscured. We introduce Temporal Dependency to Causality (TD2C), a supervised learning framework that operationalizes this hypothesis. TD2C learns to recognize these complex causal signatures from a rich set of information-theoretic and statistical descriptors. Trained exclusively on a diverse collection of synthetic time series, TD2C demonstrates remarkable zero-shot generalization to unseen dynamics and established, realistic benchmarks. Our results show that TD2C achieves state-of-the-art performance, consistently outperforming established methods, particularly in high-dimensional and non-linear settings. By reframing the discovery problem, our work provides a robust and scalable new tool for uncovering causal structures in complex systems.

Understanding how events in a scenario causally connect with each other is important for effectively modeling and reasoning about events. But event reasoning remains a difficult challenge, and despite recent advances, Large Language Models (LLMs) still struggle to accurately identify causal connections between events. This struggle leads to poor performance on deeper reasoning tasks like event forecasting and timeline understanding. To address this challenge, we investigate the generation of causal event graphs (e.g., A enables B) as a parallel mechanism to help LLMs explicitly represent causality during inference. This paper evaluates both how to generate correct graphs as well as how graphs can assist reasoning. We propose a collaborative approach to causal graph generation where we use LLMs to simulate experts that focus on specific semantic relations. The experts engage in multiple rounds of discussions which are then consolidated by a final expert. Then, to demonstrate the utility of causal graphs, we use them on multiple downstream applications, and also introduce a new explainable event prediction task that requires a causal chain of events in the explanation. These explanations are more informative and coherent than baseline generations. Finally, our overall approach not finetuned on any downstream task, achieves competitive results with state-of-the-art models on both forecasting and next event prediction tasks.

Causal inference determines cause-and-effect relationships between variables and has broad applications across disciplines. Traditional time-series methods often reveal causal links only in a time-averaged sense, while ensemble-based information transfer approaches detect the time evolution of short-term causal relationships but are typically limited to low-dimensional systems. In this paper, a new causal inference framework, called assimilative causal inference (ACI), is developed. Fundamentally different from the state-of-the-art methods, ACI uses a dynamical system and a single realization of a subset of the state variables to identify instantaneous causal relationships and the dynamic evolution of the associated causal influence range (CIR). Instead of quantifying how causes influence effects as done traditionally, ACI solves an inverse problem via Bayesian data assimilation, thus tracing causes backward from observed effects with an implicit Bayesian hypothesis. Causality is determined by assessing whether incorporating the information of the effect variables reduces the uncertainty in recovering the potential cause variables. ACI has several desirable features. First, it captures the dynamic interplay of variables, where their roles as causes and effects can shift repeatedly over time. Second, a mathematically justified objective criterion determines the CIR without empirical thresholds. Third, ACI is scalable to high-dimensional problems by leveraging computationally efficient Bayesian data assimilation techniques. Finally, ACI applies to short time series and incomplete datasets. Notably, ACI does not require observations of candidate causes, which is a key advantage since potential drivers are often unknown or unmeasured. The effectiveness of ACI is demonstrated by complex dynamical systems showcasing intermittency and extreme events.

We propose a novel framework for generating causal graphs from narrative texts, bridging high-level causality and detailed event-specific relationships. Our method first extracts concise, agent-centered vertices using large language model (LLM)-based summarization. We introduce an "Expert Index," comprising seven linguistically informed features, integrated into a Situation-Task-Action-Consequence (STAC) classification model. This hybrid system, combining RoBERTa embeddings with the Expert Index, achieves superior precision in causal link identification compared to pure LLM-based approaches. Finally, a structured five-iteration prompting process refines and constructs connected causal graphs. Experiments on 100 narrative chapters and short stories demonstrate that our approach consistently outperforms GPT-4o and Claude 3.5 in causal graph quality, while maintaining readability. The open-source tool provides an interpretable, efficient solution for capturing nuanced causal chains in narratives.

Abstract-- Transparency and explainability are important features that responsible autonomous vehicles should possess, particularly when interacting with humans, and causal reasoning offers a strong basis to provide these qualities. However, even if one assumes agents act to maximise some concept of reward, it is difficult to make accurate causal inferences of agent planning without capturing what is of importance to the agent. Thus our work aims to learn a weighting of reward metrics for agents such that explanations for agent interactions can be causally inferred. From here it is trivial to generate a textual explanation such as: "Red overtaking Autonomous systems are becoming increasingly prevalent in our day-to-day lives. Hence we ought to understand cause and effect in relation to their behaviour and the behaviour of others.